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Oil

Thursday, January 08, 2015

As everyone likely knows, oil prices have plummeted from summertime 2014 levels. The rapidity of the decline in oil prices has contributed to markets dislocating, which has resulted in increased volatility so far in the New Year. Market participants are trying to sort through potential winners and losers and at what level oil prices will find a bottom. Continue reading »

Exposure

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Dictionary.com’s Word of the Year for 2014 is exposure. This word was chosen for its various definitions that describe several major themes that occurred around the globe. While not covered in the word of the year article at dictionary.com, exposure also has meaning from an asset allocation context. Continue reading »

Indicators appear green

Wednesday, November 05, 2014

Broad economic indicators we often assess show normal conditions ahead for financial markets. We do not detect reasons for being excessively pessimistic or exuberant about markets, but rather managing client portfolios in the ordinary and somewhat boring fashion of controlling risks and participating when equities move higher. Continue reading »

Bull Markets

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

John Templeton said that bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. Well, if this is the case, it looks like the bull market still has legs. Continue reading »

Trust in the Fed

Monday, September 15, 2014

U.S. equity markets appear to be in a range-bound state of late mostly without fear of multiple, ongoing geopolitical issues. These high price levels are to the dismay of some, but the Fed’s support of the economy and management of monetary policy is a likely factor assisting stocks and contributing to relatively subdued volatility.  Continue reading »

Divergence

Monday, August 25, 2014

Economic data from the U.S. and Eurozone suggests the two economies are on non-parallel courses. Fed Chairwoman Yellen and ECB head Mario Draghi delivered different messages recently in Jackson Hole, WY about economic conditions in their respective regions of responsibility.  Continue reading »

Passing Storms

Friday, August 08, 2014

Generally during the summer months in parts of Florida, thunderstorms roll through almost on a daily basis. One can just about count on these rain showers to come as they become part of the normal routine. This process is healthy and attributes to the lush, green vegetation found in Florida.  Continue reading »

Earnings

Saturday, July 26, 2014

S&P 500 constituent earnings are beating analysts’ estimates in aggregate so far for 2Q14 earnings season, according to information from the Factset. Of the 46% of companies reporting, approximately 76% have beaten earnings estimates and 67% have exceeded the sales mean estimate. Profit growth for the quarter has averaged 6.7% versus estimates going into the quarter of 4.9%. Analysts forecast further earnings growth for 2H14 with estimates of 8.3% and 10.4% for 3Q14 and 4Q14 respectively. Continue reading »

Equity fundamentals

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Equity return expectations going into this year were for moderate expansion with a bit more volatility. Well, so far returns have been moderately positive but not much in the way of volatility. We expect to see equities hang tough and ultimately move higher, but possibly with more swings in the action. Continue reading »

Historic Broad Rally

Monday, June 30, 2014

Broad asset classes posted gains in unison for the first half of 2014 through Friday 6/27/14, an occurrence not seen in more than 20 years.

Rallies in indices of stocks, bonds, and commodities reflected investor uncertainty in the face of irregular U.S. economic growth and geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East. It is unusual to see this many different categories – Gold 9.7%, Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 8.1%, 10-year U.S. Treasury note 6.4%, MSCI World Index 4.8%, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index 4.3% - up at the same time as these asset classes tend to perform best in certain market environments. Commodities often rise in inflationary periods, stocks during periods of economic growth, and bonds normally outperform in weaker periods.  Continue reading »

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